Making the most of the forecast

It’s important for graziers to know where to access the most up-to-date and accurate climate-related information. Graziers know that the impact of a La Nina event varies across the different regions of northern Australia, and while the broader seasonal forecasts predicted an early northern rainfall onset and wetter than average season, some producers were frustrated by the ongoing dry conditions in late spring and early summer.

In this webinar recording, Anne Marie Huey (Northern Australia Climate Program) discusses and shows:

• the difference between climate and weather
• explains how weather forecasts are developed
• leads an interactive session guiding you through the BoM website
• which tools are most useful at this time of year (and which aren’t), where to find them and how to assess their reliability and accuracy.

As a beef producer from the Kimberley herself, Anne Marie regularly uses a range of tools to assess information and therefore increase her confidence in weather forecasts.  And while these resources are freely available on the Bureau of Meteorology website they can be difficult to find and sometimes to interpret if you don’t know where to look.

You can watch the full recording or use the playlist below to jump to the start of a particular section within the presentation. 33:02; published 24 February 2021 by FutureBeefAu.

Download a copy of the presentation – Making the most of the forecast (PDF, 1.4 MB).

Additional resources:

• MetEye – your eye on the environment (Bureau of Meteorology)
• Climate Outlooks (Bureau of Meteorology)
• Northern Australian Climate Program
• Climate Mates Program (Northern Australian Climate Program)

Full recording

Playlist

1. Making the most of the forecast
2. What’s covered?
3. Climate vs weather
4. Models – statistical vs dynamic
5. Models – how they have improved
6. Tools available: short and long-term
7. Probabilities – what are the chances?
8. Seasonal variability (using an example to help explain)
9. Average vs median
10. Navigating the BOM website
11. I. MetEye
12. II. Rainfall forecasts
13. III. Short-term forecast maps
14. IV. Chance of at least (seasonal forecasts explained)
15. V. Rainfall and temperature outlook (over the longer-term)
16. Northern Australian Climate Program website and the Climate Mate Program
17. Maddison-Julian Oscillation (MJO) Phase diagram